Summary of the day so far…
It is 07.50am in Kingston, Jamaica. Here is a recap of the latest developments:
-
Hurricane Melissa is closing in on Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, the strongest for the island since records began in 1851 and the world’s most powerful so far this year, with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h)
-
The storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
-
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has ordered a mandatory evacuation of low lying areas amid warnings of catastrophic flooding, landslides and extensive infrastructure damage.
-
The hurricane is nearing Jamaica but has not made landfall – when the eye of the storm reaches the coast – yet. This is expected to happen shortly but there remains uncertainty around exactly when due to the changing nature of the storm’s speed.
-
After Jamaica, Melissa is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today.
-
In Cuba, authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people from areas vulnerable to winds and flooding.
-
Hurricane Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.
-
An official from the World Meteorological Organization said the hurricane will be the “storm of the century” for Jamaica and is expected to cause a “catastrophic situation”.
-
Tens of thousands of customers in Jamaica have already experienced power outages over the past day as the slow-moving hurricane approaches the island, according to the Jamaica Public Service.
Key events
From Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg
As Hurricane Melissa prepares to descend on Jamaica people right across the country have been feeling its increasingly destructive effects.
Violent winds and heavy rains have knocked out power for some residents in Portland, St Thomas, St Andrew and Manchester, St Elizabeth and Westmoreland, including in popular tourist destinations such as Negril and Treasure Beach.
In St Elizabeth heavy rainfall and winds continue and there have been more reports of downed trees across the parish. The Treasure Beach and Black River areas remain a particular concern as Melissa is expected to make landfall along the coast.
Over in Clarendon there are reports of flooding in central and southern sections of the parish. Videos on social media show heavy flooding in an area known as Aenon Town. Sections of Toll gate and surrounding communities are also reported to be flooded.
There are several low lying and flood prone areas in Savanna la Mar and surrounding areas in Westmoreland. Residents say they are concerned their homes will not withstand the expected wind speeds.
And along the Norman Manley Boulevard, in Negril, which is home to several resorts, there are already flooded roadways and downed trees. Flat Bridge which connects communities in St Catherine is also flooded and impassable.
The National Hurricane Center has confirmed that Hurricane Melissa is now about 260 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.
The center also said in its latest update that it has maximum sustained winds of 180mph.
Summary of the day so far…
It is 07.50am in Kingston, Jamaica. Here is a recap of the latest developments:
-
Hurricane Melissa is closing in on Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, the strongest for the island since records began in 1851 and the world’s most powerful so far this year, with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h)
-
The storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
-
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has ordered a mandatory evacuation of low lying areas amid warnings of catastrophic flooding, landslides and extensive infrastructure damage.
-
The hurricane is nearing Jamaica but has not made landfall – when the eye of the storm reaches the coast – yet. This is expected to happen shortly but there remains uncertainty around exactly when due to the changing nature of the storm’s speed.
-
After Jamaica, Melissa is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today.
-
In Cuba, authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people from areas vulnerable to winds and flooding.
-
Hurricane Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.
-
An official from the World Meteorological Organization said the hurricane will be the “storm of the century” for Jamaica and is expected to cause a “catastrophic situation”.
-
Tens of thousands of customers in Jamaica have already experienced power outages over the past day as the slow-moving hurricane approaches the island, according to the Jamaica Public Service.
Damian Carrington
Damian Carrington is an environment editor at the Guardian
Advances in climate research in recent years mean scientists can now calculate the influence of human-caused climate crisis on extreme weather events, using a method called attribution. It compares today’s heated world with a world without the higher temperatures.
The researchers at Climate Central have now run the numbers on the key factor driving the strength of Hurricane Melissa – the ocean heat that powers the cyclone.
They found that during Melissa’s rapid intensification the storm drifted slowly over exceptionally warm ocean waters that were 1.4C (2.5F) hotter than average and that these conditions were made up to 700 times more likely because of the climate crisis.
These abnormally warm waters, combined with overall climate warming in the Tropics, are projected to have strengthened Melissa’s top wind speed by about 10 mph, and increased its potential damages by up to 50%.
Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, said:
Climate change is having an impact on the strength of this storm. We know these stronger storms will become more dominant and bring intense rainfall. Rising sea levels mean more coastal communities will be at risk from storm surges and must prepare for floods and landslides.
“Melissa has been a strange hurricane, hanging around in the Atlantic and getting stronger in bursts,” she added. “These rapid intensifications will also become more common with climate change. This is not a hypothetical scenario to be imagined. This is a real and deadly storm.”
“This is one of those worst-case scenarios that you prepare for but desperately hope never happens,” Cloke said. “The whole country will have a deep and permanent scar from this beast of a storm. It will be a long and exhausting recovery for those affected.”
Hurricane Melissa will be ‘storm of the century’ for Jamaica, official warns
Hurricane Melissa will be the “storm of the century” for Jamaica and is expected to cause a “catastrophic situation”, Anne-Claire Fontan, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) tropical cyclone specialist, has been quoted by the Reuters news agency as having told a Geneva press briefing.
The Category 5 storm is now expected to bring wind gusts of over 300 km per hour (186 miles per hour) and widespread devastation Jamaica, where authorities have ordered mandatory evacuations. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding, rivers bursting their banks and mudslides.
As we have previously mentioned, the storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Dr Leanne Archer, research associate in climate extremes at the University of Bristol, describes why Hurricane Melissa is going to be such a powerful storm and outlines how the conditions have been “supercharged” by the human-induced climate crisis.
Archer said:
There has been a perfect storm of conditions leading to the colossal strength of Hurricane Melissa: a warm ocean which has fuelled its rapid intensification over the last few days, but it is also moving slowly, meaning more rain can fall whilst it moves across land.
Most of these conditions have been supercharged by the extra heat in our oceans and atmosphere due to climate change. A warmer ocean means more energy; more strength; and more moisture in the warmer atmosphere means more rain can fall with a higher intensity.
Jamaica experienced a devastating hurricane in 1903, but analysis of this event undertaken by climate scientists have shown that this same hurricane would have been more intense if it occurred now due to climate change.
This suggests Hurricane Melissa could be the most devastating hurricane to ever hit Jamaica, which will have been amplified by our heating planet.
Climate scientists are clear that a heating planet is likely to fuel hurricanes that lead to larger storm surges (due to higher sea levels); more intense rainfall; higher intensities and a larger number of events that become the most catastrophic (Category 4-5 events). Hurricane Melissa has all these aspects.
Hurricane Melissa could impact 1.5m people in Jamaica, Red Cross says
Hurricane Melissa could affect 1.5 million people in Jamaica alone, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said, warning of a “massive impact”.
“1.5 million people may be impacted,” Necephor Mghendi, the IFRC’s head of delegation for the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, was quoted by the AFP news agency as having told reporters. Mghendi warned that this number could be “an underestimate”.
As a reminder, after Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in Haiti this evening.
The Bahamas are set to experience hurricane conditions on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions in the Turks and Caicos Islands forecast on Wednesday too.
Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s water and environment minister, said he had more than 50 generators available to deploy after the hurricane, but warned people to set aside clean water and use it sparingly. “Every drop will count,” he said.
Parts of Jamaica could see rainfall of up to 40 inches and a “life-threatening storm surge”, according to the US National Hurricane Centre.
Although exact timings are unclear due to the shifting nature of the hurricane’s speed, Melissa is expected to make landfall on the island early on Tuesday. It has just gone past 5.10am in Kingston, Jamaica.
Colin Bogle, an adviser for Mercy Corps, an aid agency, based near Kingston, said most families are sheltering in place despite the government ordering evacuations in flood-prone communities.
“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said. “There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has said there are 850 shelters across the island, enough for more than 20,000 people.
Yvette Cooper, the British foreign secretary, said in a post on X that she had spoken to her Jamaican counterpart, Kamina Smith, to “offer our support” and was monitoring the path of Hurricane Melissa.
The UK government is advising British nationals in Jamaica to continue to monitor weather updates, follow the guidance from local authorities and points to a list of available hurricane shelters for those in need.
Here is a live tracker view as Hurricane Melissa barrels northeast through the Caribbean Sea:
Tens of thousands of Jamaicans impacted by power outages over the past day
More than 52,000 customers in Jamaica have experienced power outages over the past day as Hurricane Melissa approaches the island, according to the Jamaica Public Service (JPS).
The JPS said its teams have restored power to more than 30,000 of those affected, but warned that heavy rain and difficult terrain are creating access challenges in some areas as the weather continues to deteriorate.
“We will continue to restore power in affected communities for as long as it is safe for our crews to work,” the JPS said in a statement posted to Facebook.
